some years back the celebration of the Resurrection of Christ in the catholic church took place on Holy Saturday morning, while now it takes place during the night.

When was the change brought about and by whom?

ENRIQUE

-- ENRIQUE ORTIZ (eaortiz@yahoo.com), April 02, 1999

Answers

A quote from Yardeni's recent report on Y2K prompted me to write this. In particular, it was a quote concerning the thoroughness of the FAA's analysis and software testing:

Mr. Willemssen [GAO] was worried that the FAA's analysis "may not have found all date processing code in the Ultra assembly language programs that run in the UNIVAC processor."

It occurred to me that the brief "testing" that is being done (an hour here with an approach radar, an hour there with an Boeing 737) is probably not substantial enough to uncover any defects.

Another telling quote was posted today by our own Flint, where he said (in reference to the banks) "Don't worry. Everything will be tested. Thoroughly."

In the software development world, it is common knowledge that the first casualty of shrinking budgets and diminishing schedules, after Training and Documentation, is Testing. In my profession, I have seen the complexity of systems (function points, lines of code, number of interfaces, etc.) rise exponentially, without a corresponding increase in testing. The result has been buggier code, more severe slippage, and higher costs (sound familiar Mr. Gates?). Although I started warning my customers and managers about this phenomena about five years ago, I was always greeted with disbelief, ridicule and laughter. They aren't laughing anymore, but they still haven't grasped the concept.

é 
                                          O    
C                                      O       
O                                    O         
M                                  O           
P                                 O            
L                                O |           
E                               O  |           
X                              O   |           
I                             O    |           
T                           O      |           
Y                         O        |           
                       O           |           
                    O              |           
                O                  |           
            O                      |           
       O                           |           
  O                                |           
 
1990             1995             2000

Figure 1. System complexity over time-projected without Y2K factor

Figure 1 depicts the way I expected this effect to manifest itself before I realized the systemic nature of y2k. I expected a continued rise in complexity (with a continued decline in testing), until an Omega Point was reached, and the curve stared to plateau. This corresponds to the cusp in the graph around 2000.

é 
                                               
C                                              
O                                              
M                                  O O         
P                                 O    O       
L                                O |      O    
E                               O  |         O 
X                              O   |           
I                             O    |           
T                           O      |           
Y                         O        |           
                       O           |           
                    O              |           
                O                  |           
            O                      |           
       O                           |           
  O                                |           
 
1990             1995             2000

Figure 2. System complexity over time-projected with Y2K factor

Figure 2 is my revised projected complexity graph which takes the y2k effect into consideration. My point in relating all this is that most people (and I'm talking engineers here at work) could not see the effect I described in Figure 1 coming, and are still not sure what it is they are experiencing. So the fact that there are engineers that do not understand the consequences depicted in the second graph is not so surprising.

-- a (a@a.a), April 14, 1999.

A quote from Yardeni's recent report on Y2K prompted me to write this. In particular, it was a quote concerning the thoroughness of the FAA's analysis and software testing:

Mr. Willemssen [GAO] was worried that the FAA's analysis "may not have found all date processing code in the Ultra assembly language programs that run in the UNIVAC processor."

It occurred to me that the brief "testing" that is being done (an hour here with an approach radar, an hour there with an Boeing 737) is probably not substantial enough to uncover any defects.

Another telling quote was posted today by our own Flint, where he said (in reference to the banks) "Don't worry. Everything will be tested. Thoroughly."

In the software development world, it is common knowledge that the first casualty of shrinking budgets and diminishing schedules, after Training and Documentation, is Testing. In my profession, I have seen the complexity of systems (function points, lines of code, number of interfaces, etc.) rise exponentially, without a corresponding increase in testing. The result has been buggier code, more severe slippage, and higher costs (sound familiar Mr. Gates?). Although I started warning my customers and managers about this phenomena about five years ago, I was always greeted with disbelief, ridicule and laughter. They aren't laughing anymore, but they still haven't grasped the concept.

é 
                                          O    
C                                      O       
O                                    O         
M                                  O           
P                                 O            
L                                O |           
E                               O  |           
X                              O   |           
I                             O    |           
T                           O      |           
Y                         O        |           
                       O           |           
                    O              |           
                O                  |           
            O                      |           
       O                           |           
  O                                |           
 
1990             1995             2000

Figure 1. System complexity over time-projected without Y2K factor

Figure 1 depicts the way I expected this effect to manifest itself before I realized the systemic nature of y2k. I expected a continued rise in complexity (with a continued decline in testing), until an Omega Point was reached, and the curve would start to plateau. This corresponds to the cusp in the graph around 2000.

é 
                                               
C                                              
O                                              
M                                  O O         
P                                 O    O       
L                                O |      O    
E                               O  |         O 
X                              O   |           
I                             O    |           
T                           O      |           
Y                         O        |           
                       O           |           
                    O              |           
                O                  |           
            O                      |           
       O                           |           
  O                                |           
 
1990             1995             2000

Figure 2. System complexity over time-projected with Y2K factor

Figure 2 is my revised projected complexity graph which takes the y2k effect into consideration. My point in relating all this is that most people (and I'm talking engineers here at work) could not see the effect I described in Figure 1 coming, and are still not sure what it is they are experiencing. So the fact that there are engineers that do not understand the consequences depicted in the second graph is not so surprising.

-- a (a@a.a), April 14, 1999.