I'd like to know everyone's Oscar picks.

Okay, it's not that I consider y'all to be discriminating viewers; I want to win my office pool. We're doing everything, even the short films and sound effects. Given that I have neither the time nor the inclination to see everything that's been nominated, I thought I would defer to you guys.

Sure, none of you will benefit in any tangible way, but you will be able to bask in the knowledge that you helped a young man make his way in this crazy world that doesn't give a darn if your girlfriend needs a new watch.

And please keep in mind that this is for what will actually win, not what should win- "Baby Geniuses" all the way!

-- Anonymous, March 01, 2000

Answers

here's mine... put them in whatever category you'd like:

day of the beast (foreign, i suppose) american beauty hands on a hardbody the celebration (foreign)

well, that's pretty much it. lots of other things really sucked to hard i just watched the commercials rather than wasting money.

-- Anonymous, March 01, 2000

Best Picture: "The Cider House Rules." Despite Tom Hanks and a story from the guy who brought us "Misery" and "The Shawshank Redemption," "The Green Mile" will lose a well-deserved Oscar to a classic whose acclaim I really don't get.

Best Actor: Russell Crowe. They'll want to give it to Denzel, and then someone will shout, "Hey, we're not voting for Best Picture here!"

Best Supporting Actor: Tom Cruise. Everybody's shocked that he could be this good. They even wonder how convincingly he could say, "I see dead people."

Best Actress: Annette Bening. She deserves it, and it'll make them feel better about snubbing Kevin Spacey for Best Actor.

Best Supporting Actress: Catherine Keener. The search for the perfect art-house cold heart has ended.

Art Direction: "Anna and the King." Not since "Renaissance" has there been such a no-brainer in this category.

Cinematography: "The Insider." Not sure who's the favorite here, but I'm predicting an upset.

Costume Design: "Topsy Turvy." It's between this and "Anna and the King," and I can't decide which is this year's "Elizabeth."

Best Director: Michael Mann for "The Insider." Damn, I want this one to go to "The Sixth Sense," but the Academy has an unerring instinct for violating my sense of justice.

Film Editing: "The Sixth Sense." So many strengths, and not a category well-known enough for the Academy to go contrarian.

Makeup: "Bicentennial Man." Now if only they could make such leaps in the art of making people look YOUNGER.

Original Song: "You'll Be In My Heart," Phil Collins, from "Tarzan." This category is usually pretty close to popular opinion. But aren't you just dying to hear Celine Dion sing "Blame Canada"?

Sound: "Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace." Props to the sound kids at Lucasfilms, even if a lame script came out of a different department.

Sound Effects Editing: "The Matrix." Anime sensibility wins out.

Visual Effects: "Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace." Should be "The Matrix," but Hollywood wants a chance to say that "Episode I" wasn't as disappointing as everyone says.

Original Screenplay: "American Beauty." "Magnolia" is magnificent, but too confusing, and "The Sixth Sense" is too tightly integrated with the camera work for the Academy to properly acknowledge anything more than the great ending.

All IMHO, for what it's worth. -shane

-- Anonymous, March 01, 2000

A word of advice about Oscar pools: Don't vote for what you want to win, but rather what you think the voters of the academy will want to win. Alot of those old geezers are big on sentiment and they like to bestow Oscars on those who are not necessarily the most deserving, but who will get the biggest round of applause (i.e. very popular actors, old people or sentimental favorites - having a life-threatening illness or a disability is a bonus).

Having said that, here is the formula which I use to make my Oscar picks, and I've won my office pool 4 years in a row.

Get yourself a copy of the Entertainment Weekly Oscar picks issue, and one other complete list of Oscar picks from another source (note: do not rely on friends or relatives, seek professional help from an informed source or industry insider only). You can usually rely on these sources to get the technical awards right, and they are also helpful in determining the winners in some of the more obscure categories. Do not assume that all their choices are correct, but weigh their opinions against your own gut instincts. Make your selection for the big awards such as Best Actor/Actress and Best Picture as close to the day of the awards as possible, sometimes the buzz on a particular winner is so strong around that time that you kind of have to go with it.

I can't believe I take this shit so seriously. Good luck.

-- Anonymous, March 01, 2000

Sarah, you've got it exactly right about how to make your picks. In my betting pool, we have a system in which you receive one point if who you think *will* win gets the Oscar, and half a point if who you *think* win does. It makes it more digestible to pick people or movies you can't stand but know will win anyway.

-- Anonymous, March 01, 2000

My friend goes to UW Milwaukee for film, and is the self- described "Biggest Movie Nerd Ever". A few weeks ago, he sent me his pics for the oscars. A more thoughtful and accurate prediction you will proably have to go far and wide to find, IMHO.

BEST PICTURE

What I want to win: "American Beauty" What will probably win: "American Beauty" What got fucked over: "Magnolia"

BEST ACTOR

Who I want to win: Kevin Spacey Who will probably win: Kevin Spacey Who got fucked over: No one really . . .this is a decent list

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Who I want to win: Tom Cruise Who will probably win: Tom Cruise Who got fucked over: John C. Reiley, Jason Robards, and Philip Baker Hall, all for "Magnolia"

BEST ACTRESS

Who I want to win: Annette Benning Who will probably win: Annette Benning or Hilary Swank . . .it could swing either way. Who got fucked over: Don't know . . .I don't really follow actresses that closely . . .

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Who I want to win: Catherine Keener Who will probably win: Angelina Jolie Who got fucked over: Catherine Keener, if she doesn't win.

ART DIRECTION

What I want to win: "Sleepy Hollow" (yeah, it was only OK, but just look at it!) What will probably win: "Topsy Turvy" or "Cider House Rules" . . .they always pick shitty period pieces. What got fucked over: This list is fine, I suppose.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

What I want to win: "American Beauty" or "Sleepy Hollow" What will probably win: "American Beauty" What got fucked over: "FIGHT CLUB, FIGHT CLUB, FIGHT CLUB." Also, "The Limey" and "Magnolia."

COSTUME DESIGN

What I want to win: "Sleepy Hollow" What will probably win: "Topsy Turvy" or "Anna And The King." What got fucked over: This'll do.

DIRECTING

Who I want to win: Michael Mann or Spike Jonze Who will probably win: Sam Mendes Who got fucked over: David Fincher and Paul Thomas Anderson

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

What I want to win: "Buena Vista Social Club" What will probably win: One of the other ones What got fucked over: "AMERICAN MOVIE, AMERICAN MOVIE, AMERICAN MOVIE." But hey, what's new. The documentarians eat the biggest slices of dick pie out of anyone. Also, "Mr. Death."

DOC. SHORT

WHAT GOT . . . Well, really . . .who cares. Has anyone even seen any of these?

FILM EDITING

What I want to win: "American Beauty," "The Insider," or "The Matrix" What will probably win: "American Beauty" What got fucked over: "The Limey" and "Fight Club."

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Sorry, this year I just don't care. "All About My Mother" will probably win anyway. Piece of crap.

MAKEUP

What I want to win: "Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me" What will probably win: "Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me" What got fucked over: This will do

ORIGINAL SCORE

What I want to win: "American Beauty," only because I haven't seen the others. What will probably win: "American Beauty" What got fucked over: "South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut"

ORIGINAL SONG

What I want to win: "South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut" What will probably win: "Magnolia," which is just fine What got fucked over: The only thing that might have gotten fucked over is "South Park," and it's up. I have no complaints.

ANIMATED SHORT LIVE ACTION SHORT

I haven't seen ANY of them, so I don't feel I could make an educated pick.

SOUND

What I want to win: "The Matrix" What will probably win: "The Matrix" or "Star Wars: Episode 1" What got fucked over: Nothing I can think of, except for maybe "Fight Club."

SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

What I want to win: "Fight Club" What will probably win: "Fight Club" What got fucked over: Nothing.

VISUAL EFFECTS

What I want to win: "The Matrix" What will probably win: "The Matrix" What got fucked over: "The Matrix" if it loses to "Stuart Little."

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

What I want to win: "Election" What will probably win: Not "Election." Which sucks. "Election" was last year's BEST comedy, hands down.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

What I want to win: "Magnolia" What will probably win: "American Beauty" What got fucked over: "Magnolia," when it loses.

-- Anonymous, March 01, 2000

Ahh, yes, a forum near and dear to my heart. I actually prefer The Golden Globes -- far less predictable than the Hollywood masses, but every year I turn my phone off and watch The Oscars.

Best Picture: "American Beauty," with "The Insider" running a close second. "Magnolia" got hosed. I LOVED "Magnolia." Paul Thomas Anderson has a great career ahead of him.

Best Actor: Kevin Spacey SHOULD win, but they'll give it to Denzel.

Best Actress: Annette Bening hid her horror well at The Globes. She expected to win, but Swank came out of nowhere. Swank will win. The Academy loves anyone with any kind of affliction or strangeness.

Best Supporting Actor: Tom Cruise. What a character. He made me laugh, he made me hate him. He totally entertained me. Like my friend said, "It's nice to see him acting again." BUT, knowing the Academy's fondness for the kids, I would not be surprised at all if they give it to Haley Joel Osment for "The Sixth Sense." Witness Ana Paquin's stunning surprise win for "The Piano" in 1994.

Supporting Actress: Catherine Keener. She's gotten most the buzz, and a movie as original as "Malkovich" deserves SOME recognition. But, it may go to Angelina Jolie. She's winning every kind of award, so the Academy may just jump on the bandwagon.

Best Director: Sam Mendes, "American Beauty." First time directing and he's up for the big one. Michael Mann runs a close second.

Best Screenplay: If they don't give it to "Being John Malkovich," it should go to Paul Thomas Anderson for "Magnolia." People bitched and moaned about how much this film sucked and how long it was. They've been watching too many fluffy movies with Julia and Sandra.

Best Song: Loved Randy Newman's song, "When she Loved Me," from Toy Story 2. Phil Collins will win for "Tarzan." When you write a popular song for a DISNEY film, it's an automatic Oscar, bawd-ah-bang bawd-ah-bing.

-- Anonymous, March 01, 2000

Ive never posted to a discussion board before, but since my old buddy Andy asked this question, and since I never miss the Oscars, I figured, what the hell?

If I had to guess, Id say BEST PICTURE: American Beauty, BEST ACTOR: Denzel Washington, and BEST ACTRESS: Annette Bening (I didnt say Kevin Spacey because that would be a sweep of the top three categories and only It Happened One Night and Network ever did that).

For BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR AND ACTRESS: Who cares, really? (I tend to take a Bill Murray/vintage SNL approach to predicting in these categories. It worked for him for five years, so why not?)

Seriously, the Best Supporting Actress category has eluded me for years. Dont listen to me or youll never win your Oscar pool because youll vote for Gloria Stuart or Lauren Bacall and then become increasingly appalled when you realize Lauren didnt even have so much as a nomination until recently, but the Academy has seen fit to bestow acting awards on the likes of Marisa Tomei and Kim Basinger.

(Ten years ago, I gave my own personal Oscar to Kim for her performance as a presenter on the 1990 Oscar telecast. I called my award Best Endorsement for Mandatory Celebrity Drug-Testing. After she and Alec Baldwin spent two minutes exchanging what I guess was supposed to be witty banter, he said something and she responded with Oh, yes. Yes, thats true. Oh, my. My, yes. Yes. My, oh, my. Yes. Oh, my. My. Yes. My.)

This year, I hear theyve cut the Debbie Allen dance routines and the cheesy production numbers so I wont be able to bestow my personal Irving Thalberg Award: The Rob Lowe/Snow White Memorial Lifetime Achievement Award for Most Inept Musical Performance. Its a shame; I always look forward to handing that one out, especially in recent years when a number of performers have seemed bent on unveiling the worst singing voices on the planet.

As for the rest of the categories, well, Im afraid youre on your own. Just throw caution to the wind, close your eyes and pick. I tried it the year of Titanic and won a heap.

-- Anonymous, March 01, 2000

Correction: In the above message, I don't know where my brain was when I typed "Network." I meant to type "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest." Sorry for the bad trivia.

-- Anonymous, March 01, 2000

No doubt American Beauty will be the Big Winner on all fronts. Ick. It's a sad, pathetic, predictable little piece of drivel. I mean, come on! It's just Kevin Spacey portraying yet another sick fuck of a character. Nothing new there. The only real disappointment is Annette Bening. I really expected something less one-dimensional from her. Did I say one-dimensional? I meant non-dimensional!

Oops, sorry about that. Didn't mean to blow up in your face like that. It just ticks me off that crap like that gets so much undeserved attention.

-- Anonymous, March 02, 2000