Would we be blackmailing China if the incident had happened over OUR airspace? and we had their folks?

I do not think it takes a degree in international relations to understand the CFR crowd has put Dubya into a box here. Predictably Dubya has chosen to "negotiate" with criminals. Instead of telling the jerks return our folks or else, Bush panders.

I think it also worthy to note the absence of the UN, and our Allies on this. It is also important to point out how the Media is basically airing the Communist partyline over this. How? By promoting this notion we should be negotiating with criminals. Diplomacy? hardly.

What is your opinion?

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Answers

The answer to your first question is "no". Not to say we wouldn't play it for max propaganda value, not to say we wouldn't hold the "spy plane", but we would return the crew.

Bush is in a tricky place. The Chinese have him by the short hairs. He can't show weakness here (more than a few international implications) but he can't leave the crew hanging in the breeze.

He must be doing something right. He has already received strong criticism from Conservative sources such as Weekly Standard and Washington Times as well as from the usual suspects.

I doubt if this will drag on. The Chinese have more to lose than we do.

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

FWIW..on the absence of the UN...if ya look all the way to the bottom of this article you'll find this..

Article

snip

At the United Nations, Secretary-General Kofi Annan offered to help resolve the standoff, but said he hoped direct U.S.-Chinese talks would end the confrontation.

"I hope the direct discussions will lead to results, but if my good offices are needed, I am always available," Annan said.

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Instead of telling the jerks return our folks or else, Bush panders.

"Or else" what, Doc? Start turning the screws on trade? Immediately begin massive arms sales to Taiwan? Send in the fleet? Any "or else" is going to have negative repercussions which, in my opinion can be avoided through diplomatic means. The thing to keep in mind is that the Chinese leaders also have to save face with their people and an ultimatum would ratchet things up to a point where their options are even more limited. I don't feel Bush has shown a "weakness" as of yet and considering the fact that the crew is apparently being treated well, I say stay the course. From the reports I hear, an agreement is becoming more and more likely. (I reserve the right to change my opinion however, should this thing drag out too much longer.)

I think it also worthy to note the absence of the UN, and our Allies on this.

I've wondered about this myself. Surely it's being discussed at the UN and by our allies, but why is it not being reported?

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Thanks for the UN comment article, Peg. I'd not seen that before I posted.

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

First and foremost is the importance of understanding that those 24 members of the E3 crew are HOSTAGES……plain and simple. In a fantasy world we would send Chuck Norris over to ‘bring our people back’. In the real world, we are being forced to bite tongue and carefully step through the diplomatic minefield until those brave folks are back in a safe harbor.

After that, it will be time for payback to the PRC.

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Bush told the CFR boys to hell with you on Kyoto. Consider this GW's acid test, his loyalty test. The Globalists will allow GW rope on US domestic policies, but externally this rope becomes a short leash. GW knew this, but tested them. Now he is in a pickle.

Each day that passes, GW learns who really controls things. He is bending over literally here. No question GW is in quite a predicament. I, like most, do hope this is all resolved soon and peacefully. Something which will happen when Powell calls the CFR people and tells them GW "understands" how it is going to work.

What I think could end this thing real quick is for all of us to say NO to Chinese products. In fact the ONLY reason this is even an issue is because most of us sold-out long ago and accepted the crud, me included. We bought crap produced by slaves, by kids, by folks under the boot of criminals. Trade has not done shit but made the creeps stronger. To the point now where we probably have given up even the option of economic warfare by the consumer. But I think it worth a shot myself.

WE have the power, not them.

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Hostages Socrates? Is that what the "media" is reporting? A major clue to how they want the American Public to view this I would submit. Remember that folks next time you hear.."they are comfortable, happy and well fed". You are being fed lines of crapola.

Again, would the USA be holding these Hostages? Course not, so why all the BS? Why the silence from our Allies? The UN with their whimper?

Negotiations? for what? over what? what in the hell is to talk about? GW towing the CFR gameplan is what. What is that? To make the world one big "economy" under their wacky socialist intellectual blueprint. Problem is, we ain't all the same. Few if any of us are willing to give-up our culture for a few flashy trinkets and some michael jackson smileyface music. More importantly one does not negotiate with Marxists. Have we learned anything?

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Interesting. I find myself mostly in agreement with you on this one, Doc. But somehow I think Cherri will have a problem with this.

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Doc,

Ya gotta have some Patience...or so the man says.

No end in sight as far as I can tell and reading articles like this one where Bush is urging the Chineese to bring resolution to end the situation only further confuses me.

The Chineese are gonna save face at all costs...IMHO.

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

"What is your opinion?"

China's greatest allies in the USA is the business community - especially banks and telecommunications. US banks and businesses made a large amount of direct investment in China (through partnerships) during the 1990s. The US business community relies on the continued good will of the Chinese government to make their investments profitable. The Chinese government knows this and has no compunction about making their continued pleasure contingent on our serving their interests. Their leverage against US business puts a heavy brake on the US government.

This constitutes yet another reason why our government is weakened by its slavish captivity to the interests of big business. If our democracy were stronger, there would be a meaningful public debate over what our national interests are in this case with business interests having a voice, but not control.

As it stands, the public may have an opinion, but its opinion will not be sought. The opinions of our representatives may be consulted, but it will not play any significant role in forming policy. Rather, the public will be informed of the party line as the policy evolves, just as in the old Soviet Union. The only important input will be made out of public view to serve interests we can only guess at and based on factors that will not be revealed.

Don't be surprised if China comes out of this smelling like a rose and we are the ones who are saving face. We will be given some scrap of concession to hide our nakedness and the media will declare that a great victory has been won. The flow of money will not be discommoded.

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Something which will happen when Powell calls the CFR people and tells them GW "understands" how it is going to work.

I like that comment, Doc. (And for all we know, you could be quite right.) Hey, every single president was a rookie when he took over the position. Because he's an unknown quantity, he's now being "tested" by the Chinese. It was for situations just like this that I appreciated Bush's choices of experienced people with which he surrounded himself.

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Wall Street is eating it up. Good sign GW is about pucker-up.

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Doc,

24 soldiers are not valuable hostages, except in a publicity sense. Since when has a general been afraid to sacrifice 24 grunts? In WWI, as many as 200,000 soldiers were killed in a day - for no discernable advantage. If Bush wanted something and those soldiers stood in his way, he'd brush them aside with only a momentary bad taste in his mouth.

The real "hostages" in this situation are the US business interests who sank many billions of dollars into China. And yes, the Chinese are keeping them well-fed and happy. Mostly.

The Chinese are smart enough to know that a few hundred billion dollars in investments and potential profits is a hostage the US government will really sweat over.

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Leave it to me to find the simple in a complex situation, but I really do think it's this simple.

China doesn't want us to sell those three Aegis destroyers to Taiwan. They also want us to quit overflying their airspace. If Bush were to agree to stop that sale and to stop the recon flights, those 24 people would be on a plane home tomorrow morning.

Whether the Chinese actually arranged the incident (as I suspect) or are simply capitalizing on an opportunity that fell into their laps through our pilot's error, that's (at least a major part of) the real goal on their part.

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Stephen...it may not be that simple.

They also don't like this.

And to be blunt...where would the demands stop?

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

"...those 24 people would be on a plane home tomorrow morning."

Absolutely. No question in my mind you are correct. But the real hostages would still be in China, well-fed and happy as clams. And the Chinese will use them over and over again.

Our leverage over them is pretty minor compared to theirs over us, because the only things they want from us we give them freely - investment dollars and technology transfers. Our military doesn't mean squat to them as a threat because they take a long view and are willing to wear us down over decades, in a contest that has nothing to do with blowing things up or shooting them down.

BTW, I don't see the Chinese government's policies as being all that much different from those of any other expansionist power across the ages, including ours. The details may differ but the same strong arm tactics always emerge when the "need" arises. Our professed values are prettier and we know how to make nice when nice gets us what we want. But getting what we want is always the bottom line, isn't it?

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

About that link, if the window comes up to download the text for translation...just hit cancel and it comes up in english.

:)

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Think the more important test of wills is between the Chinese leadership and its own military than with the US. Their pilot screwed up and lost his plane and his life. Very tough for the military to swallow let alone admit.

Betting Washington is letting this showdown play out as long as the 23 are safe. Could work out pretty neat in the long run or it could work out pretty scary pretty fast. Here's betting on the politicians.

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Peg,

You're right, they don't like SDI a bit, either. Forgot about that. But I have to believe (hope?[g]) that even the Chinese know that there are limits to what they could reasonably expect to get for 24 hostages.

By the way, that what I call them: HOSTAGES. None of this "detainee" crap for Stephen. This is plain old kidnapping and blackmail, as far as I'm concerned.

Carlos,

Well said.

-- Anonymous, April 10, 2001

Thanks for the heads-up Peg!

Think,

I stand by my opinion. I do not believe the World Bankers risking Billions of ducats hoping them Dictators will just "behave". This is a line-in-the-sand for GW. I figure he gets it now. Question is, will his close buds get it?

One thing to dick around with say, local yokels and a California Energy Crisis, quite a different matter on the Globalists turf beyond our borders. GW fell inline on the Balkans. He figured he could slip the Kyoto deal thru by not, he figured wrong and is now being educated proper in how it works and will work, or else.

Wall Street had its first sign GW gets it and rebounded significantly from the first 3 months of head scratching. Gold is testing bottoms on the threat of armed conflict with Communist China. Sorry, this is telling. It tells me the big boys understand completely what this is about and the risks are knowns.

Well I hope you Conservatives enjoyed your 3 months in the sun, it is over now. Move along, nothing to see here but a repeat of Clinton with less charisma.

-- Anonymous, April 11, 2001

This NYT article isn't very upbeat.

U.S. Sends Beijing a Formal Statement Expressing Regret

snip

Tonight White House and State Department officials said President Jiang could accept today's statement and release the crew. Or he could call it progress and raise new issues, including the frequency and routes of American reconnaissance flights.

Several officials say they worry that while Chinese diplomats may be satisfied with the American statement, the military may demand more. "We'll see whether they say `fine,' " a senior Administration official said, while adding that such a scenario seemed unlikely.

Administration officials repeated today that they would not bargain away their right to run spy flights in international airspace.

Soon, however, Mr. Bush will face the decision of when and how to resume the flights. Military officials in Hawaii, who oversee operations over the Pacific, know that resuming the flights could be provocative and delay the release of the crew. So far they have not asked permission to send another flight aloft.

But not resuming the flights would play into the central demand by China: that the United States stop close air surveillance of its military.

and this bothers me...

other Pentagon officials spoke with growing frustration and anger over China's refusal to let the crew members go, and over their treatment. "They should have been back the day after they arrived," one senior officer said. "They're not being treated as tourists on Hainan, that's for sure."

That was in sharp contrast to the way the White House and the State Department were stressing the crew's comfortable surroundings.

-----------------------------

If anyone can't access the link and wants to read the story, let me know and I'll paste it here. :)

-- Anonymous, April 11, 2001

oops..I missed this...Good News!!!

China to release plane crew after U.S. says sorry

-- Anonymous, April 11, 2001

The letter of two sorries

April 11, 2001

Web posted at: 8:44 AM EDT (1244 GMT)

The following is the text of the letter written by U.S. Ambassador to China Joseph Prueher to Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan, expressing that the United States is sorry for the loss of the Chinese pilot and that a U.S. Navy plane landed in China without permission.

Dear Mr. Minister:

On behalf of the United States government, I now outline steps to resolve this issue.

Both President Bush and Secretary of State Powell have expressed their sincere regret over your missing pilot and aircraft. Please convey to the Chinese people and to the family of pilot Wang Wei that we are very sorry for their loss.

Although the full picture of what transpired is still unclear, according to our information, our severely crippled aircraft made an emergency landing after following international emergency procedures. We are very sorry the entering of China's airspace and the landing did not have verbal clearance, but very pleased the crew landed safely. We appreciate China's efforts to see to the well-being of our crew.

In view of the tragic incident and based on my discussions with your representative, we have agreed to the following actions:

Both sides agree to hold a meeting to discuss the incident. My government understands and expects that our aircrew will be permitted to depart China as soon as possible.

The meeting would start April 18, 2001.

The meeting agenda would include discussion of the causes of the incident, possible recommendations whereby such collisions could be avoided in the future, development of a plan for prompt return of the EP-3 aircraft, and other related issues. We acknowledge your government's intention to raise U.S. reconnaissance missions near China in the meeting.

Sincerely,

Joseph W. Prueher

Now we are witnessing the attempt at saving GW's public face domestically. They(Media) have turned their massive press apparatus around now to "help" shore-up Bush after 2 weeks of dismantlement. GW got his butt smacked. Maybe a little too well as many CONservatives are left with a bad taste in their mouths. Major head-scratching going on.

Listened to parts of Pigboy's and Mike Reagan's radio shows yesterday. OH boy the backpeddling and excuse making has reach new lows. Rushie claimed Dubya "brilliant" in using some high level semantical "tricks" to secure the release. "He didn't apologize", he fooled them and said he was just sorry etc etc. MR while less in a state of shock than Pigboy, likewise felt it necessary to make excuses in a lame attempt to explain away what can only be explained as GW folding under to commies.

Colin Powell had the best zingers yesterday. The SPY Plane(legal recon mission)violated Chinese airspace by making the emergency landing and we are "sorree". Sorry? Sorry for what? a MAYDAY? Was the EP3 pilot supposed to "call ahead" and make reservations for landing strip use? Then this traitor CFR stooge Powell spits in the pilots face by commending him for great piloting in bringing the crippled SPY plane down.

Accident my phat ass. This happened because GW is President. GW you see has not been following the Globalists plan. He "wants" to get tough with China. Basically he is putting bidness interests and the face of the commie dictators at risk. So a lesson was inflicted to smack down this "rogue", this Rookie president.

Never in your wildest dreams would this thing have gone on or even probably happened with Clinton(or Gore) in the WH. This IS the reality many Americans have to come to terms with if they are ever to make sense of the last 2 weeks. Like I said above, this was a short- lesson on Internalional Business Relations for the OilPatch President and his gang of domestic yokels.

Glad it is over for now and hope it sticks. Unbelievable a US President has to even negoiate with freaking criminals. But the world is what it is, a CFR run Global marketplace for phatcats. Unfortunately for GW and gang, they now hopefully understand they are small fry in this marketplace. May change(is), but the Old Guard still has the "relationships" and control of the Big Media.

-- Anonymous, April 12, 2001