Power Notices Expected All Week (KFWB) --

The California's Independent System Operator (ISO) expects to avoid power emergencies today, despite previous warnings that a Stage 2 Emergency was likely today, Southern California Edison tells KFWB. However, high temperatures throughout the state are expected to continue 24-hour power shortage notices every day this week, Edison said.

Today's power consumption is expected to be about 37,700 megawatts with about 3,700 megawatts of generation off line or limited, Edison's Gil Alexander told KFWB. Accumulated heat in buildings will probably require more air conditioning to cool down, Alexander said. Temperatures have been about 10 percent higher than initially forecast.

The ISO had been predicting a Stage 1 Power Emergency by noon today and a Stage 2 in the 1pm hour, Alexander said, but power emergencies have apparently been avoided.

"There are no rolling blackouts flatly predicted for today," Alexander said.

The forecast peak in power use is expected at 4pm. The most critical period is expected to be during the one third of the day between noon and 8pm.

-- PHO (owennos@bigfoot.com), June 18, 2001

Answers

They are only up to 37,000 megs and blackouts loom on the near horizon. Ye Gods! If that be the case, what's going to happen in July and August when up to 46,000 megs are required, plus the trapped heat from previous hot-streak outbursts, requires air conditoners to run at full blast? Something to (???) look forward to.

-- JackW (jpayne@webtv.net), June 18, 2001.

The blackout forecasts are like ice sleet and snow forecasts in winter when 32F precipitation appears likely --- a relatively small percentage of the grim forecasts actually come to pass, and many that do are less than worst-case.

According to the ISO's website, and http://energycrisis.lbl.gov/, system capacity is about 45 Gigawatts. The "catch" is that the last 5 gigawatts or so are unreliably present, and another 5 to 10 are often very expensive to "tap". Often these last few gigawatts have to be imported on the "spot" market, at the last minute. Hence, the CA ISO electrical load could hit 45 Gigawatts without suffering an immediate electrical blackout, with some good luck.

What will black out at these load levels, though perhaps not the first time, is California's money and credit; with possible severe debt default cascading effects rippling throughout the world banking system and economy.

-- Robert Riggs (rxr.999@worldnet.att.net), June 18, 2001.

The last paragraph of your comments, R. Riggs, are real interesting, and logical; frankly, I hadn't even thought of that angle.

-- Nancy7 (Nancy7@hotmail.com), June 18, 2001.