e0023b0-r-06000 u n Urgent-pge-END_1-HOUR_PR 07/03 42 END 1-HOUR PROBABILITY NOTICE

From: PG&E

CAISO has canceled the 90 minute probability Notice for rotating outage program.

Due to the dynamic nature of the electric utility system, this forecast is subject to change.

For more information contact: http://www.pge.com

EDIS-07-03-01 1507 PDT

-- PHO (owennos@bigfoot.com), July 03, 2001

Answers

Running solely off solar power in Southern CA:

The I.S.O. website page at http://www.caiso.com/outlook.html shows a virtual intersection of demand and capacity at about 3:20 p.m. Simple math shows that the reserve margin at that point was clearly less than 1.5%. Why was there no Stage 3 alert declared?

Does FERC's price cap formula ruling have anything to do with why the seriousness of CA's grid conditions is consistently being understated and underpredicted?

-- Robert Riggs (rxr.999@worldnet.att.net), July 03, 2001.

Strange days we're living in.

-- PHO (owennos@bigfoot.com), July 03, 2001.

From notes on CAISO "Outlook" graph page:

"* The Actual and Forecast Demand numbers within the above table include a 3% reserve while the graph at the top of the page subtracts 3% from Available Resources so as not to distort the demand curve.

This 3% reserve ensures the California ISO’s ability to respond adequately to an unanticipated emergency. In order to protect the integrity of the Grid, the California ISO must declare a Stage Three Emergency when the system’s Operating Reserve is forecast to be at or below 1.5% or less than the largest contingency within the service area (estimated to be 3%)."

-- PHO (owennos@bigfoot.com), July 03, 2001.

FERC's price cap could definitely manufacture some totally unanticipated, last-minute blackouts. It wouldn't take more than a few energy suppliers to say, at the drop of a watt, the hell with it, we'll ship it to Nevada, Utah, Montana, whatever, instead of California. FERC, as of yet, does not have any authority over where the electricty will flow, only the prices charged. Davis has been so threatening and nasty to the generators that it wouldn't surprise me at all to see this happen.

-- Wellesley (wellesley@freeport.com), July 03, 2001.