Who is this TK person, and did s/he not see what was going on before Y2K?

I remember reading somewhere on here where s/he claims none of us could have "know" for sure things were going to be ok. I was running through my old mail-list and decided to post some of the things from there, here.

Wierd, to think of the drive, the intensity, the overwhelming misinformation we were trying to negate back then. Then poof-nothing. I was kinda left feeling the need to "work" as hard as I had been, yet had nothing to do it for......

Now on to those "chips" you are so worried about: The "Embedded" talk is way out of realisted proportion. The problems that have been found are miniscule.
There are no hidden clock functions in embedded chips. The only chips with the posibility of having a date function are those which have the ability to have software programmed into them. Since most programmable chips are used in systems with an external clock source, they have not been programmed with their own "clock" functions. The main reason for this is that it takes up a lot of memory to write the booleen algebraic equations for seconds up to years, leaving little room left to program the chip for the desired function you attempting to accomplish.
So, all chips with the exception of the BIOS/RTC chip and the "programmable" chips, are Y2K error free.
That means that of all of the billions of chips manufactured, there are just a minute number 00.0003% with the possibility of a Y2K impact and of those an even smaller % have actually have an impact, of which the majority are simple date stamps which are a normal, acceptable function today and will be after Y2K and an even smaller have an impact that could cause an error or equipment failure.
Origionally it was believed that there were billions of chips and (origionally) 5 to 10 % could have Y2K problems that could cause mass failures in every area of life that used electricity. It was said that each individual device had to be checked.
From that we have had an explosion of speculation, generally from other people who had as little or no real life experience in the subject, that has created the biggest misinformation fiasco in history. This is no urban legend, this is planitary legend.
Today it is known that thse estimates were mistakes and made by people who not only did not have practicle knowledge of the subject, but had no clue as where to go to get the real information on them.
The informaton was always available to anyone who knew where to look.
Unfortunatly today it is not common knowledge that the estimates have been changed.
Even the wording has been changed. From "embedded chips" to "systems with a Y2K impact". In other words, since it has been found that the majority of failures (and yes embedded "systems" have failures) are because of the software that goes through the chips. Not the firmware that may have been burned into programmable chips..
Software EXTERNAL to the chips and systems them selves.
Too many people copied the origional estimates and information and have used it as a basis for their beliefs about the possible outcome of the rollover.
There are thousands of webpages that have been built with the origional estimates as the basis of the misinformation they contain.
Cherri

Not too bad a post from a time I when I didn't have a spell checker.... *grin*

This poor guy came late to the Y2K scene, and was frightened, coming up with all the stuff we had heard before....

Charles talked to him too.

At 08:53 PM 09/03/1999 -0400, Skully wrote:
>Hello Paul,
>Let me begin by saying that, I am not of the Doomsayer. I do not believe
>that the end of civilization is near. I do, however believe that we are in
>for a bit more trouble than you have described in your short dissertation.
>You use current statistics of Power failure rates and Chemical plant
>accident rates in your equation. Then you compare them to possible rates
>that might occur from Y2K problems. Although the rates of failure you sight
>could be correct, the cause of those failures such as localized storms,
>Localized overloads, localized damage caused by trees and other "Line
>Breaking" events were for the most part "Acts of God", and I'm sure that
>there were some "Human Mistakes thrown into the mix as well. The
failures >caused by Y2k will not be nearly as localized! Oh sure they will be probably
>happening or starting to happen in a small area, but as you have seen in
>some of those past events, a transformer overloading in Southern California,
>CASCADED into a MAJOR outage including four of five Western States.

....................

That lasted exactly how long?? Next.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What
>Gary North is saying is that Y2K is systemic...It will show up in many, many
>places across the nation, possibly at the same time. The cause of the
>failures may not be just an overloaded transformer. The causes might be the
>failure of multiple embedded chips built into many switching systems.

................

North is a historian. Last year he bought a PC and found out it was not Y2k complaint. The only chips he can disuss on a rational basis would be made of potatoes or come from Cows. In order to have the cascading failures you suggest, you must have a brittle system. However, we have seen time after time, in failure after failure, the system is not brittle and does flex.

WHY?? Because HUMANS intervene.

The argument of North and others about "embedded systems" is fallacious and built upon a few examples. Utilities have been running systems WITH ALL EMBEDDED SYSTEMS CLOCKS SET PAST 2000 AND SOME HAVE BEEN RUNNING THAT WAY SINCE........JUNE OF 1998.

That is the reason that the Utilities claim the are ready and will fix on failure.

Similarly, the argument about Oil Cracking plants, chemical process and similar plants are built on "lets pretend something fails". The largest petroleum companies and the largest chemical plants have test and remediated all their systems. DuPont gives seminars to smaller companies in "How to prepare for Y2k"
WHY would duPont do that? Go look up the word "Feedstocks" and see what the major have in what is call the Chemical industry "supply chains".
If you want to worry about something, I suggest you start researching Mr. Bin Laden and his little buddies who HAVE KILLED AMERICANS DELIBERATELY not accidentally. That should give you your need quota of things to "worry about".

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

These
>failures might happen at the stroke of midnight Dec. 31st or they might
>happen weekly for months after that date. Our ability to fix those failures,
>unlike reattaching a wire, or replacing a transformer, quickly is where your
>comparison falls apart.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Replacement of those failed chips could take weeks, >or months.

//////////

WHO SAYS?? SOME "CONSULTANT" without a College diploma?? Or a vendor looking for a contract?? Most commonly used devices are readily available. A new Network Device was announced today. It enaables switching via the internet. One of the need chips for the device is a uC : the 8031. 8031s were in use 15 years ggo and SIT ON THE RACK OF MOST ELECTRONIC SURPLUS STORES in major cities for less than $4.00. I could find 50,000 of them in maybe 2 hours. Same for almost any Eprom or ROM made.

The MYTH that "manual operation" is not possible is only true for a tiny fraction of Controls. Few Engineers would design in ANY SYSTEMS without "fail safe". To suggest such a thing reveals ignorance of Engineering Design.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

>The overloading, that those chip failures caused, could have
>caused many transformers to explode damaging the whole area they were
>attached to. What I am saying is that the failures caused by Y2K could take
>much more time to fix and could be much more extensive then the "NORMAL"
>failures that we have experienced in the past. Without a reliable and
>constant flow of clean electrical power, our industries will come to a quick
>grinding halt!

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

AND IF A COMET HITS EARTH TONIGHT THAT COULD HAPPEN.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

>All our industries! With out power for weeks at a time, civil
>unrest will cause so much damage that our civilization may just cease to
>function. It wouldn't take years for this to occur but those types of
>problems could keep occurring for years because of the embedded chip
>failures. How long do you think our just-in-time economy will be able to
>hold together under those circumstances?
>That is why I think the way I do. Too many failures at one time, too much
>time needed to fix those failures, and too few police to control the hungry
>people. All the hungry people! Millions of them.
>skully
>"GOOD LUCK"
> skully
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

MOST ON THIS LIST HAVE HEAR ALL OF THAT BEFORE.

FROM "HUMPTY DUMPTY YOURDON (now not commenting on Y2k)

FROM Gary North: historian with a specailty in Puritan History of the 1600-1700s.

FROM Michael Hyatt: book agent

FROM: Jim Lord : claims to be an "officer" but never gives Navy Rank. Most unusual for a Navy Officer. NOT EXPERTISE IN SEMICONDUCTORS

FROM : Y2k Newswire: software programmer and P.R. man inventing the latest Direct mail pitches to extract cash from suckers.

FROM : DISCREDITED VOICES who wouldn't know a Semiconductor from Copper.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Why I am saying~no Y2K embedded chip problem

The question "can I be right and everyone else be wrong".

The answer is yes.

First of all, who is everybody? The 40 billion chips with XX% having Y2K risk theory is nothing more than an idea of a few individuals who are believed, as they were considered experts, and the idea has snowballed because there are very few who can or did dispute it. I disputed it 6 months ago, but realized I needed more information in areas in which I was not an expert. Will there be headlines stating "this person" proves all the Y2K experts are incorrect in their statements about the depth of the embedded chip problem? I have no idea, and could care less.

Why did those "experts" make the statements about the severity of the embedded chip problem? It appears to me that when the pickings got thin in the mainframe remediation area, those people attempted to find another area for their services. It is possible that they are concerned about "embedded chip/systems. The only problem they made was in assuming digital electronics was in any way based on the same theories as programming. Hardware (yes even programmable chips such as EE-PROMS) are based on the law of physics. What is-is. A is A. No amount of discussion, no amount of internet research, no amount theory no amount of wishing and guessing will change that fact.

You ask why no one has disputed their theories before me? Others have.
They have been accused of using techno talk to attempt to confuse or lie to you. Many have tried and given up~knowing that it is not possible to talk logically to a closed mind that would take the words of so called experts over the logic of the facts. Many understand human nature well enough that if a person does not have the background to understand what one is attempting to explain to them, frustration sets in and it does cause unnecessary harm to the listeners ego (which it should not because every one has their own area of expertise). Such as myself. I have an extremely logical mind, yet I have problems with spelling (not logical *grin*) and I have no creative talent of any kind. I could go on but I do not believe it is necessary to consider myself as lacking something as a person just because I am unable to do certain things. People are individuals with any combination of talents and that is what differentiates us from animals. A lot of people do not have my ability, or were never given the opportunity ( or just never had the desire) to enter my field of expertise. This is a non issue.

Back to my points. I know what I am talking about. I am stating that the people who proclaim the issues I am disputing do not in any way come near to my experience and understanding of the issue.

I believe it is morally wrong for me to sit and do nothing to show that they are incorrect. Why am I doing this you might ask, do I have a hidden agenda, am I doing it for money, fame, to build my ego (I do not need to have my ego built~I am comfortable with myself), to sell a book or services.I am glad that you might wonder this and you should. The reason I am doing this is because I see harm caused by it, unnecessary harm. People are completely giving up life as they live it in fear of what the possibilities are from this misinformation. People are scared and confused which is harmful to their minds and bodies.

I know~I've been there. It is not a pleasant state to be in. When all you know appears to be unreal and flimsy, you do not know who to trust and you learn not to trust yourself. You live with uncertainty. This is extremely harmful in adults, based on what we learn as children. A child abandoned by the ones he trusts, his parent(s) or caretaker goes through great emotional distress. As adults you are now being ask to put yourself in the same position as the child went through.

Your are being asked to distrust everything in your life. And to worry about everything you take for granted every moment of each day.
You wake up~it's cold, no heat from gas or electricity, you cannot use the toilet because there is no water or sewage treatment, Wash your face and brush your teeth in cold water from a jar. Your clothes are dirty from not having a way to clean them, or are stiff from the line after hand washing them. What do you eat and how did you come by it and how will you cook it. There are no schools for your children to go to, no job for you to go to, and if you do have one it will be physical work as apposed to the use of your mind. You cannot drive for there is no gas, so how do you get to your job? You are cut off from the world of information for all the same reasons. All you know is gone and you have no idea of how to exist in this "world".

If the Y2K problem was only pertained to mainframes and smaller computers do you believe this scenario would happen. Hopefully not.

But with the information you are receiving about embedded chips, which appear to be in everything you have around you, possibly failing, you are thrown into the mindset and possibility of the scenario I described above.

That is why I am doing this. I believe in doing no harm. I believe the information you are getting in the "embedded" area is by people with an agenda-be it a book, a service, to feed their ego, to make money or for what ever ends. I believe they are doing so without regard for doing no harm. To profess to know that which they do not, based on opinions, polls, surveys, talking to managers as apposed to the technicians, from words people write on the internet or any other such means, rather than irrefutable physical facts is reprehensible in my opinion. If you go through the sites on the internet you will find that most of the messages you are getting return to a small number of persons and "experts".

Fortunately facts are facts and when confronted with physical facts, those who are propagating the Y2K "embedded" failure theory, will have to admit the truth. Many are already backing down on a lot of things they stated as fact in the past. Web pages are being updated (but the old ones have been saved by many) to back down on the extreme theories on the embedded situation they expressed before.

When the people you trust as experts start changing their own "facts" you have got to judge everything they profess to know. Just how many mistakes have they made in other areas, if they are admitting (by changing) their words in this area.

I would not ask you to trust me or believe what I say as fact. I only hope you use the logical ability of your own mind to come to your own conclusions on any information I and others give you.

--

year-two-thousand e-group - Year-Two-Thousand-y2k-interact-and-info

Oh..The good ole days......*wink*

-- Anonymous, August 19, 2001

Answers

Someone should as "The Paula" what the difference between an 8031 and an 8748,8749 or 8751 is and and whether she prefers the 8031p or a ceramic version and why.

I'd be surprised if she could even open a PC to add dRAM modules.

-- Anonymous, August 19, 2001

TinKerbell is just another "sheeted" doomer still stinging from its y2k wrongness. pissing about doc paulie not really being a doctor (gee I wonder who did that on Biffy?) stealing mother nachus line about laughing at the forum over coffee....etc etc.

Don't give this loser any more attention. it doesn't even have the guts to reveal its pre-y2k "handle". I wonder why? NOT.

-- Anonymous, August 20, 2001