In a couple of current threads and in other recent postings many seem to think Leica may soon go under - is this really likely?

For sure the Leica "name" is worth a small fortune and would not be hard to sell, just look at the recent famous case in the UK when Rover sold to BMW - BMW retained the "Mini" brand and flogged Landrover for a King's ransom - the rest of the group was worthless.

Who would buy Leica? What would they do with it?

Imagine if it DID disappear! - And no more Leica equipment was ever made again!

-- Giles Poilu (giles@monpoilu.icom43.net), January 18, 2002

Answers

This question has been explored extensively on the LUG (Leica Users Group) and no consensus has been reached. In my opinion with Leica selling everything they manufacture it is unlikely they will go out of business. They may change ownership, but cease existing, I do not think so.

-- Steve LeHuray (steve@icommag.com), January 18, 2002.

I've been hearing this rumor ever since Leica produced the M5... I think many people feel that the "Least-we-could-do" M6AE/M7 is as much of a foo-foo as the M5 was -- which did hurt Leica at the time, BTW. So it is generating some concern over history repeating itself. BUT, I also think Leica is smart enough not to make that kind of mistake again. I hope.

-- Jack Flesher (jbflesher@msn.com), January 18, 2002.

Sadly, I suspect that Leica going out of business is inevitable.

Leica serves a very small (and growing smaller) niche market made up of individuals devoted to quality imagery, and the company lacks the financial muscle to move into emerging markets. And, considering the tenor of the stock markets (decidedly oriented to short-term profits and share-price growth), it is unlikely that Leica could attract the kind of investment that would enable them to do so.

My bet would be on Leica being bought by a larger, probably Japanese, camera company - Nikon, perhaps. Imagine a Neica M8 or M9 with a 32 mega-pixel digital back, for example. Nikon, in turn, will probably be gobbled up by an even larger company - Fuji, perhaps. They'll try to market the Feica M10, which will be a complete flop because it didn't incorporate the latest 16 GIGA-pixel, 3-D capture technology, and the line will die. Our great grandkids will then play with our handed-down Leicas and wonder about what film was. By then, Wm. Gates IV will be deciding what images we (actually, our great grandkids) should be seeing anyway, and charge a daily viewing license fee.

-- Ralph Barker (rbarker@pacbell.net), January 18, 2002.

While I would hate to see Leica disappear, my immediate concern is receipt of the sizeable rebates from a recent purchase. I think they are about due to arrive!

-- Tom (therbert@miami.edu), January 18, 2002.

My first quality camera was an Alpa 9d. Look what happened to Alpa. We still have new Alpa cameras, but not in the 35mm format. Alpa was similar to Leica in that they made high quality, but quirky, handmade cameras. But, then, Alpa 35mm production didn't survive but Leica did, with its greater user base and some newer mass production techniques. But, I suppose that Leica could become the Alpa of the 2000's.

-- Tom (therbert@miami.edu), January 18, 2002.

I doubt it. Though Leica cameras are definitely a niche market, a great many hunters, quides and birders carry Leica Binoculars. I recall that the last year that Kindermann was the distributor in Canada (1999) the sales of binoculars and spotting scopes in Canada was 5 or 6 times that of the cameras. Add in Leica Microsystems and I think the company on the whole is not in as much trouble as we think. The question is whether they will continue to let these other products carry the cameras......

-- Bob Todrick (bobtodrick@yahoo.com), January 18, 2002.

Ralph - the Neica? Are you trying to give me nightmares...?!

-- steve (stephenjjones@btopenworld.com), January 18, 2002.

Leica makes other stuff, not just cameras. i don't think they're going under anytime soon.

-- Dexter Legaspi (dalegaspi@hotmail.com), January 18, 2002.

Dexter:

A lot of things are badged Leica. Still, there have been so many reorganizations, I can no longer remember which division makes what.

Anyone know what the camera division makes; besides cameras.

Art

-- Art (AKarr90975@aol.com), January 18, 2002.

I think its with reference to Leica Camera AG... not the other companies.

In this regard, I would have to be quite pessimistic. If Polaroid can manage to file for Chapter 11 (and they had quite a diverse product line) imagine what might happen to Leica camera when its niche markets dry up.

Not that I'm shorting the stock or anything on the Frankfurt Exchange!

-- John (ouroboros_2001@yahoo.com), January 18, 2002.

I do not think that Leica will be going under anytime soon. Sure they may not attract the Kiddie snapshooter, who only care about snaps of their kids; and no they do not flirt with the emerging digital market. But lets not forget that Leica also manufactured 35mm film when they first introduced 35mm photography. If film were to disappear...don't you think that Leica could produce their own industry by making 35mm camera and film to fill them. Photographers all over the world would turn to Leica for the ability to use film again. Leica is here to stay!

-- Rob Schopke (schopke@attbi.com), January 18, 2002.

Here is something else to think about. Leica is such an old company...the corporate stabiliy has been refined by all the company has gone throug. They have been through world wars, depressions, recessions.

Look at Enron, a US power and electric company. One year ago the companies stocks were worth over $80 a share, today only about $0.25 (twenty five cents). The company went from the Forture 500 List to a junk bond. Why...Stupidity...Coporate Stupidity. Now look at KMart...that company has one year where profits are down...sill OUT OF the red...and they are now seeking to refinance their debt. Why refinance their debt, to lower their debt service freeing up capital to stay afloat. Looking at Leica, Leica's problems seem minor. The corporate environment today is to not have a padded bank account. The funny thing is that financial planners for centuries have always told people and business to have reserves, or savings in the bank. Given that Leica does not make mistakes with their finances...there should not be a problem.

-- Rob Schopke (schopke@attbi.com), January 18, 2002.

Honnestly, Giles, As long as my R7 is in working order, I don't think that the Group difficulties is bothering me.

Look, Those Guys have carried on selling a camera while their competitors have come up with Hexar RF and Bessa T/R.

Then the world of photography is spinning down, ask your retailer how many films were sold this year... And the coming of the digital does not explain all (when you discover your Nikon is worth 10% after a year, few will invest again).

Yeah, Tamron will come up with Leica "RetroM" in 20 years of time... And you know what? most probably I'll be alive to see it, Arf, Arf, Arf. X.

-- Xavier d'Alfort (hot_billexf@hotmail.com), January 18, 2002.

I don't think there's much danger of Leica disapearing. They are small, as BMW is in the car market. As Musical Fidelity is on the Hi-Fi market. As a high end restaurant is not threatened by Mc Donald's. I don't see smallness as an inherent weakness. As long as they remain kings in optics, they'll sell and survive. The last years have showed that instead of being overtaken by Japanese in optical quality, they've re-taken a firm lead. Companies devoted to niche markets can make a good business of it and often show more resilience to economic hasards.

After talking with Leica dealers here in brussels, it seems that they have never sold as many M6 as in 2001!

-- Stephane Bosman (stephane.bosman@2ci.net), January 18, 2002.

I don't think Leica will ever disappear as such, as I hinted the brand name is too valuable for that but when do Leica cease to be Leica?

Are Voigtlander still Voigtlander or just Cosina with an historic respected German brandname?

If Fuji buy the Leica brand and "move" the blueprints and machinery to Tokyo they are still Leica's are they not?

-- Giles Poilu (giles@monpoilu.icom43.net), January 18, 2002.

I am 66 years old and have a M4-P and a M6 and a brace of lenses . I am not really concerned . While it would be great for the Company to last forever . I worked in the mining industry and can tell you that nothing last forever . Besides a mechanical camera can be repaired forever . Buy yourselves an extra , high quality lightmeter and not to worry.

-- Don Bonamer (b3435@webtv.net), January 18, 2002.

Leica is an institution. For it to go away would be unthinkable. We'd have to see to it that it received a grant for the National Endowment For The Arts.

-- Bob Fleischman (RFXMAIL@prodigy.net), January 18, 2002.

Leica is a point of light in the world well worth keeping switched on.

Rumor-milling like CNN did over the US economy about 18 months ago to win viewership is the surest route to self-fulfilling prophesies I know. Anyone read "the Gift of Fear"? Provides some insights into scare tactics and what they can do.

Ever tried to get a pro-sumer/consumer Nikon repaired? Forget it - buy a new one.

-- Phil Allsopp (pallsopp42@attbi.com), January 19, 2002.

Being Bought out over and over is a part of Leica Saga

-- martin tai (martin.tai@capcanada.com), January 19, 2002.

i might repeat myself, but compare it to contax.

-- stefan randlkofer (geesbert@yahoo.com), January 19, 2002.

Martin Tai: "Being bought out over and over is part of Leica saga"

This is news to me, or I've been misunderstanding. Other than corporate restructuring (Leitz, Leica GmBH, Leica Camera AG)and the recent infusion by Hermes I wasn't aware that the company was "bought out" ever, let alone repeatedly. Please enlighten me...

-- Jay (infinitydt@aol.com), January 19, 2002.

As reported in the other thread regarding the end of mechanical R6 SLR stocks, this seems to be a rather sad prediction for the ending of mechanical RF production.

The M6 is dead, long live the M7?

-- Giles Poilu (giles@monpoilu.icom43.net), January 19, 2002.

Giles,

I think you hit on it! They had to retire the R 6.2 because they actually plan to call the new M the M 6.2, and they didn't want to confuse anyone. ;-)

-- Ralph Barker (rbarker@pacbell.net), January 19, 2002.

Jay, at the beginning there was Ernst Leitz Wetzlar. Than Bought out by Wild of Switzerland to become Wild-Leitz Wild Leitz was in trouble, bought out by Cambridge Group in UK. Cambridge went into trouble, then bought out by Swiss, which used Leica as corporate name. They spun off Leica Camera group, then Hermes took major stake.....

-- martin tai (martin.tai@capcanada.com), January 19, 2002.

Leica Camera may or may not survive but looking into the future is at best murky.

Look at companies like Enron, then compare these collosal giants to Harley Davidson, Chrysler, Subaru... all which were on the verge of destruction at one point or other.

Its just too early to tell if Leica Camera will go defunct until it happens.

;-)

-- John (ouroboros_2001@yahoo.com), January 20, 2002.