I'm somewhat curious about how the inital sale of the M7 is doing, but if the used M6 market is any indicator, there seem to be a lot of people upgrading, meanwhile there is little demand for used M6s. Check this one out

How many M6s and M6TTLs are there out there? Produced vs. sold?

I'm selling my LNIB black .72 M6 TTL (for other reasons than upgrading to a M7) but offers are few and far between. I guess I'll save it for my son... ;-)

cheers,

pat

-- pat (modlabs@yahoo.com), April 15, 2002

Answers

Interesting that. A certain Leica specialist in London currently has about a dozen s/h M6's in stock. All have been traded in for the M7. It'll probably be like this for a few months until things settle down again.

-- Tim Franklin (tim_franklin@mac.com), April 15, 2002.

That seller had 0 feedback, nor a photo. I doubt I would have bought from him.

-- Robin Smith (smith_robin@hotmail.com), April 15, 2002.

I checked the link. The auction was ended "because the item was lost or broken". That's e-bayspeak for "the seller sold it privately to avoid paying e-bay fees".

I personally don't look for M6 demand to regain much ground. While stocks of new M6TTL's are being depleted (at closeout prices), and the initial sales spurt of the M7 inevitably winds down and Leica is forced to lower the price or offer rebates to buoy sales, the ever- accelerating interest in digital will continue to erode the customer base. My opinion is 35mm film photography does not have enough time left for the demand for second-hand M6s to rebound significantly.

-- Jay (infinitydt@aol.com), April 15, 2002.

I have a feeling (at least I'm hoping in this direction) that the Classic M-6, particularly Silver, and the Titanium (T) will survive and become more valuable. Include all (S) and (T) lenses with this forecast!

-- Bill Carson (KE7GMx@cs.com), April 15, 2002.

Look at all the LTM cameras out there - and they continue to esculate in price because they do not make them anymore! I have a feeling (at least I'm hoping in this direction) that the Classic M-6, particularly Silver, and the Titanium (T) will survive and become more valuable. Include all (S) and (T) lenses with this forecast!

-- Bill Carson (KE7GMx@cs.com), April 15, 2002.

I'm with Robin. You either need good feedback, and/or photos (most likely both for an expensive item like a leica).

-- Matthew Geddert (geddert@yahoo.com), April 15, 2002.

Jay wrote 'My opinion is 35mm film photography does not have enough time left for the demand for second-hand M6s to rebound significantly.'

An astounding assertion Jay. What is coming in digital photography that will shortly render 35mm obsolete? True most people couldn't distinguish an average 10x8 print as to its source, but digital has a long long way to go before it reaches film resolution, with, or without a Leica lens. Additionaly it is unlikely that sales of M6's will be hit by sales assistants pushing a new digital wonder camera on the public when they came in to enquire about the funny rangefinder in the window. You are trying to combine two markets for totally separate equipment niches. The price of the M6 may fall, but simply because there are so many around, and at a similar basic spec to the M7 (remove auto and TTL and the Classic M6 is what you have got). The success of the M6 will make prices fall, together with the success of the M7.

-- Steve Barnett (barnet@globalnet.co.uk), April 15, 2002.

The resolution of digital cameras has been doubling on an average of 1yr-18months, currently we're at the 6 mp mark. At that rate we should be seeing 20-24 megapixel chips, which will equal the sharpness of the commonly-used 35mm films in handheld situations (how most Leica M's are used) right around the time the supply of new M6TTL's runs dry and demand would ordinarily shift to the second-hand market and push the prices up. At that point we will all see if there are enough people still willing to shell out $1200 or more for a film-based camera to raise the prices of used M6's. My prediction is there will not be. We'll just have to wait and see. (Hint: flaming me or anyone else for saying so will have no effect on the outcome).

-- Jay (infinitydt@aol.com), April 15, 2002.

No, Jay please don't take this as a flame but your "the end of the world is nigh" constant prediction of the death of traditional film is getting a little repetitive.

Just consider the huge, vast amount of 35mm cameras, infrastructure, processing machines etc out there - as much as pro's, the media etc are converting to digital many consumers just want a bunch of snaps from their instamatic.

Plate cameras, 8mm, Betamax, Vinyl - all are still here and will be for some time to come and all these from a minute user base compared to 35mm.

Film - 35mm or whatever will be easily available/processable/popular even when my children's children are born - and people will be very happy to pay big money for those good old M6's.

-- Giles Poilu (giles@monpoilu.icom43.net), April 15, 2002.

I agree with Jay in that the resolution of the digital camera will continue to progress rapidly and will pose a threat in afew years. The solutiion: Leica must, will, better, should, could develop an appropriate digital back for both the R8 and M7 (and yes the M3-M6 bodies as well.) PERHAPS this is one of the goals of the Leica-Panasonic alliance.

-- Albert Knapp MD (albertknappmd@mac.com), April 15, 2002.

Just compare the shutter release time of the best digital cameras to the M. Even the best SLRs can't compete. So much for the decisive moment.

-- Bob (robljones@sprintpcs.com), April 15, 2002.

My bet is that digital will have far more effect on the customer base of "average" 35mm cameras, and less effect on the Leica market. The people who buy Leicas do so for a reason that is different than that of the average 35mm camera consumer.

Additionally, while digital capture resolution is increasing rapidly, I think we will see a plateau at the 6MP level due to data transfer times. The 6MP cameras are already slow enough (between shots - they are running at about 3 fps) to be unusable for some sports and news applications for which digital is the most qualified medium. Speeding up the FPS rate will require new transfer technologies to speed up offloading the image-capture chip, and those technologies will introduce a new set of engineering problems (and, associated costs).

I think we will also see a partial return to film when some of the pros who have shifted to digital find that they can't achieve different color treatment characteristics through film choice, and have come face to face with the practical aspects of digital work flow management.

Again, however, I'm of the opinion that all of these elements affect the Leica customer base far less than the typical SLR customer base. Time will tell.

-- Ralph Barker (rbarker@pacbell.net), April 15, 2002.

Well I think that you've all got it wrong. Use your mothers as barometers. Can/will you mother use digital? Do you think she wants to hook up the thing to a computer and try to figure out how to get a good print?

Most film is purchased by consumers who just want to drop off the roll at walmart and have a stack of pictures to show their friends a day or two later. Until digital has a solution that is this simple, or simpler, it doesn't matter how many megapixels they can stuff in the box.

And yes, I know that some places now claim to take your memory card and make prints, but have you seen the prices and quality? Not the value that many people look for.

-- Laura (laurawich@telecom.com), April 15, 2002.

digital will take over at some point, but i don't think it will be anytime soon. i think a 2nd/3rd generation digital technology will evolve, the current technology is not optimal for 35mm photography equipment. actually, they should be able to make the lenes much smaller (easily leica rf size) which actually would yield a better result than today.

having said that, the whole industry is tooled to build glass around 35mm so it will take quite some time.

reg. leica used market, obviously it is a nische, and I would dare say that they average leica user got some gray hair. i find it hard to believe that the leica rangefinder nische is attracting a significant amount of new users. bottom line, given the huge amount of leica m6s out there, and the fact that i don't see any increase in demand, i think the prices will settle below what we are seeing today.

just my 2 cents

-- pat (modlabs@yahoo.com), April 15, 2002.

Laura nails it on the head. Its only when you have no-hassle prints from digital will it truly takeoff with consumers. For most people, after emailing a few kid pix to grandparents, they will run out of reasons to use digital. Nobody wants to print their own stuff. Believe me, even an enthusiast like me has barely time to organize my negatives and order reprints and enlargements on anything like a consistent, serious basis.

Photojournalism and professional use is something else again...

-- Mani Sitaraman (bindumani@pacific.net.sg), April 15, 2002.

Tim,

Would you share with us the name of the London dealer who has a large stock of s/h M6s?

-- Mani Sitaraman (bindumani@pacific.net.sg), April 15, 2002.

I agree and sympathize completely. I abhor doing my own printing. I would prefer to go on shooting film (which I still do about 90%) forever. Leica is geared to produce a few thousand very expensive cameras a year for a devoted niche market and they would undoubtedly prefer to go on doing so forever. However Kodak, Fuji, Agfa et al are not geared to produce a few thousand rolls of 35mm film a year and photo labs worldwide are not geared to maintain equipment and chemistry to process a few thousand rolls of film a year for Leica users. We Leica users are powerless to influence the outcome here. It's not up to us. Cottage industries may very well continue to produce 35mm film in limited emulsions, and process it. And some people will continue to buy film and process it regardless of the cost. But the subject of this thread was the prices of used M6's and I maintain that the digital revolution and its impact on 35mm film will be a strong factor in keeping the demand for M cameras low enough that M6 prices will probably not recover completely to their former levels.

-- Jay (infinitydt@aol.com), April 15, 2002.

You can now take your Compact Flash card to a photo shop (Ritz, for example, in Maryland) plug it into a self-serve machine and select the photos you want printed right then and there. Soon you will be able to burn the photo files on a CD, and load them to a website at the same time. The wait is less than for 1-hour processing. The machine, reader, viewer and printer is smaller than any film processor and doesn't require an attendant (or a conventional computer, for that matter). How is this any less convenient than a roll of film that is processed and printed in the same shop? The same setup could be placed at a Kinkos, or even an unattended mall kiosk with payment by card swipe. This is how digital will replace the 35mm point-and- shoot, by being easier and cheaper to use. The Leica rangefinder is a different case. As a retro camera with exceptional optics, the niche it occupies isn't the same as point-and shoot; Leica will find interest as long as film is still produced for it and the facilities exist to process film.

-- Chris Henry (henryjc@concentric.net), April 15, 2002.

The endless comparisons I read, judging whether a chip with a given number of pixels can equal the quality of 35mm film, miss a more important point: digital quality doesn't have to meet or exceed the quality of 35mm to replace film. All most casual shooters want is a good 4x6 inch print, and once in awhile a 5x7 enlargement; digital already delivers this. Once an acceptable output is delivered, film really offers no particular benefit, it even present a nuisance, since most people would prefer not to have to buy film or store negatives.

-- Chris Henry (henryjc@concentric.net), April 15, 2002.

Couple years ago I bought a 2.3mio pixel camera and more recently a 4+mio pixel. The results are not overwhelming so far. Even the D1X while very nice is still not close to an M. We are in a mass- produced faceless consumer society with production counted in the millions annually and have an average product cycle life of 6months. Leica M is one way of saying things don't have to be that way.

-- John (johnlktan@yahoo.com), April 16, 2002.

"Just compare the shutter release time of the best digital cameras to the M. Even the best SLRs can't compete. So much for the decisive moment."

Nikon quotes a lag time of 58 milliseconds for the D1X. Canon quotes 55. Erwin quotes various figures, but lets say an M6 has a lag time of 10 milliseconds or so. Try this experiment with a digital watch: Start the stop watch and see if you can consistently push the button to make it stop within, say, 50 milliseconds (that's plus or minus no more than 5 in the hundredths column) of a certain time. Try it more than once. If you can do this, you are more decisive than me. Then see if you can do it without jabbing the button so hard that you would cause a camera to move with similar force, were you pushing a shutter button. I think shutter lag is somewhat overblown, or some people think they have better timing than they actually do.

The Canon EOS-1D can blast away at 8 frames per second up to 21 frames (or 16 in RAW mode) before is has to stop to write the images. How much more do you want?

I think digital will win significant converts from Leica ranks, but not everyone. As a result, I think M6 prices will continue to drop. They have been dropping a lot here in Japan over the past two years, and this was before the M7 appeared. Was it the bad economy, digtial cameras, some of both? I would look for M6 prices to go down even more.

-- Masatoshi Yamamoto (masa@nifty.co.jp), April 16, 2002.

Hi Mani,

Yes, its The Classic Camera in Pied Bull Yard.

-- Tim Franklin (tim_franklin@mac.com), April 16, 2002.

Jay Sorry I wasn't intending to 'flame' you but if you don't like people disagreeing with you, don't say anything. Its not very nice when you can have your opinion, and when I have mine its called 'flaming'. But your analogy is still wrong. Did the ship become redundant when the aeroplane was invented? No, only some if its functions. So OK some people will move to digital, but its the same people who in previous years may have gone to an SLR system. Digital will need to get into the 30+ megapixels without interpolation before the resolution is comparable. Then you have the packaging of the camera, will the shutter delay and data transfer times be acceptable, never mind the size and ergonimics (ever tried to get a Nikon D1 in your pocket?). Then there will be the lens quality, unless the often wished for M digital becomes real. There are people now who won't buy an M7 because of it being largely battery dependant. Thats a few downsides to digital. There is already a technology backlash in the mobile phones market, it will happen in cameras and most consumer electronics. People will realize they don't want or need 30megapixel cameras, there are few uses for them. The Press won't need them, the snapshooter won't need them if they only want 10x8's, but a few camera club people may want one because they like new equipment. A few studio photographers may find them useful, but then they will have larger format and even better resolution as well.

-- Steve Barnett (barnet@globalnet.co.uk), April 16, 2002.

Steve the film manufacturers and worldwide network of photo labs need *billions* of rolls of film sales in order to continue profitable operations. Your points are all valid to me, and to everyone here. But not to the majority of people who count for those billions of rolls of film: the casual P&S/take-it-to-Wal-Mart crowd. You are saying there will be enough people buying 35mm film, I say there won't. We'll just have to wait a couple years and see. I believe it will not take longer than 2-3 years for 35mm photography to shrink to a very small, expensive niche. They may not disappear, but the prices of 35mm film and processing will increase dramatically and the prices of the cameras--including Leicas--will fall. The only question is: by how much?

-- Jay (infinitydt@aol.com), April 16, 2002.

Film has so many advantages in terms of work flow that I think for keen amateurs it will always have a lot to offer. Also, there is no digital product that can produce decent images for projection. Until this happens I am not interested in a digital camera. I am happy to embrace digital processing for prints (although I still maintain conventional silver prints in black and white are superior). Jay does seem to be flagellating himself into the digital world with simultaneous enthusiasm for it and regret too. My solution is to ignore digital cameras until I can see a clear benefit for the way I take my shots now. It is a pointless waste of money to keep up with endless technology upgrades - and for no purpose as film is still the standard. If I was a professional earning my money from photography I might well feel differently, but I am not so I don't. Pay money for a good scanner and you are in the digital world with no disadvantages.

-- Robin Smith (smith_robin@hotmail.com), April 16, 2002.

i think the bottom line is that 99% of all R&D money is going into digital, thus as production resources are being honed for digital will become cheaper and cheaper. Does anyone really doubt that all technical problems (be it battery life, shutter lag, transfer times, image quality - what have you) will be solved within a forseeable future?

Meanwhile, there will definitely be a nische for leica in the market, however, GIVEN the amount of M6s produced and readily available, I don't the the prices of used ones going back up, perhaps new ones will be reduced even further (impossible to predict pricing/marketing strategy of Leica).

So where are we today? No more M6TTLs are being produced currently and Leica is "selling out" its current stock. Asperical lenses are cheaper to produce, perhaps the M7 is cheaper to produce as well, however, I wonder if prices will fall on these items. Leica users aren't really that price sensitive and I doubt that Leica would attract a significant amount of new users by lowereing prices to off- set losses from lowering prices.

Net/net, digital or not, M6 prices should be edgeing lower, not higher.

cheers,

-- pat (modlabs@yahoo.com), April 16, 2002.

Two points, I just returned fro central London: Classic Camera as mentioned above did indeed have a surplus of s/h M6's -mostly TTL's around £1150(!) - if he thinks they're going to shift at that price he must be joking. Surely by the laws of supply and demand the short term price of s/h M6's MUST fall dramatically.

I also visited the main branch of Jessops (UK's biggest photo chain) apparantly Kodak will cease all E6 production within 5 years, although encouragingly the photo students are still buying traditional chemicals and paper.

-- Giles Poilu (giles@monpoilu.icom43.net), April 16, 2002.

Kodak will only cease E6 production if it suits them in 5 years time, how they can predict at this time is beyond me, still they might do it anyway. Kodak are clearly happy to go on loosing a packet on digital products. Maybe in 5 years they will be rolling in money from all the digital investments they are doing now - on the other hand maybe not. Good luck to them. Personally I think Jessops have no more idea about this than the rest of us.

-- Robin Smith (smith_robin@hotmail.com), April 16, 2002.

" Leica users aren't really that price sensitive and I doubt that Leica would attract a significant amount of new users by lowereing prices to off- set losses from lowering prices. "

I don't understand this - you mean increasing prices don't you?

Actually I think that Leica users are price sensitive (see the gray market discussion). No one likes paying over the odds for anything. The point is that we think it is worth it. Once we perceive it to no longer being the case, we will stop buying them.

-- Robin Smith (smith_robin@hotmail.com), April 16, 2002.

"Does anyone really doubt that all technical problems (be it battery life,shutter lag, transfer times, image quality - what have you) will be solved within a forseeable future?"

How wonderful to think that technology will always produce the perfect solution! Such boundless optimism is rather endearing!

-- Robin Smith (smith_robin@hotmail.com), April 16, 2002.

Digital cameras that are acceptable quality of the vast majority oh photographers - meaning the mass market family shapshooter - have been around for over a decade. Throughout that period, we've been hearing that film will be superceded by digital "in the next 2-3 years".

If this was going to happen, why hasn't it? Digital cameras don't have any obvious advantages to the typical film consumer.

There's a Yogi Berra-ism that applies: "I hate making predictions, especially about the future."

-- Joe Buechler (jbuechler@toad.net), April 16, 2002.

Joe, the reason is that home users have not had the option to bring their digital media to a mini-lab and get prints in an hour. And home inkjet printing (and all the tweaking and adjusting necessary) doesn't appeal to most of these casual shooters. As others have said, the turning point will be the availability of instant prints from digital media at mini-labs.

-- Jay (infinitydt@aol.com), April 16, 2002.

Ffordes in the uk has suddenly gone from 1 or 2 M6 to 16 M6 of TTL and classic varieties. (www.ffordes.com) - good prices too.

Dave

-- David tolcher (davidjt@btinternet.com), April 16, 2002.

Pat,

No one will know for sure how many M6s were made till Leica publishes full serial range and production figures. I heard it said that production totals of the M6 (including TTL) are somewhere in the range of the M3, or around 225,000 units. That's interesting on a couple of points. First, production of the M3 was only for 12 years (not counting 40 or so in 1967 and 68)and secondly, Leitz made almost 100,000 other M bodies during this same time frame (M2, M1, and MD).

Now in the apparant 18 years of the M6 and its varients, or half again as long, only slightly less than a quarter million M6s. That's worth noting.

As to M6 values, Econ 101 will tell you that they will fall, and probably already have. I doubt if it was a coincidence that for much of last year, and now again, rebates are available on the 6. That happens in autos, washing machines, refridgerators, etc., etc.

That same 101 class will tell you that prices for the old models will be abnormally depressed during periods (like appears to be the case now) when people trade in the old for the new and there is a relative glut of used product on the market. When initial demand for the new catches up with production you'll see more stability, probably at about around .8-.85 to 1 for the 6 vs. the 7. Admittedly that's a guess, albeit an educated one (Engineering degree w/Math and Econ minors). I suspect the drop we're currently seeing to be there for several months till the glut is no more, then creep up but only slightly. If someone is dedicated enough they could probably compile all the sale data from E-bay for a year or so and see this.

Then you must confront the variables we can't predict. What will the value of the Euro be vs. the dollar? Are all those purists out there who bemoan AE and electronically controlled shutters going to put their money where there mouth is and suck up all the M6s, both old and new? What's going to happen to the economy which will affect M7 sales (virtually all of which are now sold new)? What if the M7 is a dog?

We'll know when demand has caught up when Leica first offers M7 rebates, or even allows their inclusion during "Leica Days". Really only then will we have any long term answers on where the M6 stands against the M7.

Stay tuned.

Jerry

-- Jerome R. Pfile, Jr. (JerryPfile@msn.com), April 16, 2002.

Jerry, thanks for a very well articulated answer. I think you summerized it very well and your assessment is right along the lines I'm thinking (albeit expressed more clearly form you. English is not my mother tongue...)

cheers,

pat

-- pat (modlabs@yahoo.com), April 16, 2002.