STEP RIGHT UP TO THE KEYBOARD, FOLKS, AND SLAY THE MESSENGER!

THE ELECTION IS KERRY'S TO LOSE

By John Zogby (Zogby International) May 9, 2004

I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.

Have you recovered from the shock? Is this guy nuts? Kerry's performance of late has hardly been inspiring and polls show that most Americans have no sense of where he really stands on the key issues that matter most to them. Regardless, I still think that he will win. And if he doesn't, it will be because he blew it. There are four major reasons for my assertion:

First, my most recent poll (April 12-15) shows bad re-election numbers for an incumbent President. Senator Kerry is leading 47% to 44% in a two-way race, and the candidates are tied at 45% in the three-way race with Ralph Nader. Significantly, only 44% feel that the country is headed in the right direction and only 43% believe that President Bush deserves to be re-elected - compared with 51% who say it is time for someone new. In that same poll, Kerry leads by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.

Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign. Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative.

Third, the economy is still the top issue for voters - 30% cite it. While the war in Iraq had been only noted by 11% as the top issue in March, it jumped to 20% in our April poll as a result of bad war news dominating the news agenda. The third issue is the war on terrorism. Among those who cited the economy, Kerry leads the President 54% to 35%. Among those citing the war in Iraq, Kerry's lead is 57% to 36%. This, of course, is balanced by the 64% to 30% margin that the President holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism. These top issues are not likely to go away. And arguably, there is greater and growing intensity on the part of those who oppose and want to defeat Bush.

The President's problem is further compounded by the fact that he is now at the mercy of situations that are out of his control. While the economy is improving, voters historically do not look at indicators that measure trillions and billions of dollars. Instead, their focus is on hundreds and thousands of dollars. In this regard, there is less concern for increases in productivity and gross domestic product and more regard for growth in jobs and maintaining of health benefits. Just 12 years ago, the economy had begun its turnaround in the fourth quarter of 1991 and was in full recovery by spring 1992 - yet voters gave the President's father only 38% of the vote because it was all about "the economy, stupid."

The same holds true for Iraq. Will the United States actually be able to leave by June 30? Will Iraq be better off by then? Will the US be able to transfer power to a legitimate and unifying authority? Will the lives lost by the US and its allies be judged as the worth the final product? It is difficult to see how the President grabs control of this situation.

Finally, if history is any guide, Senator Kerry is a good closer. Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Governor Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries. All through 2003, Kerry's campaign lacked a focused message. He tends to be a nuanced candidate: thoughtful, briefed, and too willing to discuss a range of possibly positions on every issue. It is often hard to determine where he actually stands. In a presidential campaign, if a candidate can't spell it out in a bumper sticker, he will have trouble grabbing the attention of voters. By early 2004, as Democratic voters in Iowa and elsewhere concluded that President Bush could be defeated, they found Governor Howard Dean's message to be too hot and began to give Kerry another look. Kerry came on strong with the simplest messages: "I'm a veteran", "I have the experience", and "I can win". His timing caused him to come on strong at the perfect time. As one former his Vietnam War colleague of told a television correspondent in Iowa: "John always knows when his homework is due." Though he is hardly cramming for his finals yet and is confounding his supporters, possible leaners, and even opponents with a dismal start on the hustings, the numbers today are on his side (or at least, not on the President's side).

We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry's to lose.

-- Martin Gillespie (dreadfulnews@readit.weep), May 10, 2004

Answers

Bump! OUCH!!!

-- bump (bump@bumpity.com), May 10, 2004.

Is this surprising? Who thought Kerry had no chance to win?

-- Brian Crane (brian.crane@cranemills.com), May 10, 2004.

Will the United States actually be able to leave by June 30?

The US never had any intention of leaving by June 30th.

Will the US be able to transfer power to a legitimate and unifying authority?

It isn't the US choosing the next government, it is the UN.

These statements show he either is disconnected from what is happening (which I doubt) or that he has an agenda. In fact, Zogby is very pro-Islamic and pro-Palistinian. He was always against the liberation of Iraq. We will we what he will be saying on July 30th when Kerry is tanking. ;) -bill

-- Bill Nelson (bnelson45-nospam@hotmail.com), May 10, 2004.

July 30 of what year???

-- Curious (???@???.???), May 10, 2004.

A site for those who are REALLY into polls.

-- Bill Nelson (bnelson45-nospam@hotmail.com), May 10, 2004.

I'm totally lost as to what on earth this thread has to do with Catholicism. It's more suitable for a political forum.

This Forum's rapidly disintegrating into a propaganda site for opposing US political factions. This particular thread may well be interesting to some people but it has tenuous links to our Faith.

Let's get back to more relevant Catholic matters please!

Through Him, with Him, in Him, in the unity of the Holy Spirit, all glory and honor are yours Almighty Father, forever and ever, Amen.

-- ... (...@...), May 10, 2004.

I'm totally lost as to what on earth this thread has to do with Catholicism.

I agree, got me going though :) -bill

-- Bill Nelson (bnelson45-nospam@hotmail.com), May 10, 2004.

In the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit:

USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll results, May 7-9, 2004

KEY INDICATORS:

In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time? Satisfied 37% Dissatisfied 62%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Approve 46% Disapprove 51%

Amen.

-- Jeff (jeffrey40443@yahoomail.com), May 10, 2004.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Approve 46% Disapprove 51%

Hey, that poll has a 4.5 margin of error! So it is really a 50/50 split. Anyway, most people still think we are in a recession and until they realize we aren't that number will be low.

The Kerry / Bush vote on that poll is Bush 48 Kerry 47 (still a tie).

When people realize we are out of the recession (about July), these numbers will go way up.

All politics is local, even though the Kerry forces are trying their hardest to make Iraq into Vietnam II.

-- Bill Nelson (bnelson45-nospam@Hotmail.com), May 10, 2004.

July of what year???

-- Curious ((???@???.???,), May 10, 2004.

Amen to you, "...@...". Can we please get back to Catholicism?

Also would participants please remember that this forum is on the WORLD WIDE Web. I don't see anything in the Forum rules restricting it to the USA. Those of us in other countries, whilst of course we are interested in what will be the policies of the world's most powerful country, are not interested in every little nuance of USA election campaigns.

-- Peter K (ronkpken@yahoo.com.au), May 10, 2004.

Well, I may be incorrect, but judging from the other forums on LUSENET, this system is US-based, so it is only natural that perhaps there would be more US-based posts.

I thought the main post of this thread was kind of weird--to me, Kerry still has to prove he has better solutions to today's problems than Bush does, and he hasn't done that yet.

-- GT (nospam@nospam.com), May 10, 2004.

The other fora on LUSENET include "Pondicherry", "Singapore photography" and "Newcastle United Football Club". I didn't know the USA had recently expanded so much.

Even if all the fora on LUSENET WERE based in the USA, my point would still stand: Please remember that this forum is accessible all over the world and don't speak as if only one country matters.

-- Peter K (ronkpken@yahoo.com.au), May 11, 2004.

You are of course right that the USA isn't the only country that matters. But we are the world's sole "hyper-power", and for both good and ill, we do have (both via government and via private sector) our fingers in absolutely every one else's pies. It's also true that the great and on-going culture war of the West rages most hotly here in the USA rather than in other English-speaking countries. Pro-life and pro-abort forces are most organized here, rather than in say, the UK or New Zealand.

In fact, most moral issues of any global consequence have their most vociferous proponents and opponents here, rather than elsewhere.

But thank God we're not the only country on earth!

-- joe (joestong@yahoo.com), May 11, 2004.

Peter, I was speaking in the context of the US being the home of the internet, that unless proven otherwise (as in with an address clearly stating the name of another country in it), many/most websites are assumed to be US websites by default. Not good, not bad, just "is".

No one is saying that only one country matters, it is just that if you were to take a poll of the regular and many of the irregular posters, you would find that an overwhelming majority of them are from the US, so it is perhaps only natural that they might mention US issues from time to time.

Also remember that it is the decision of the moderator and the owners of any forum who can establish what is and isn't okay to be on a forum, not us.

-- GT (nospam@nospam.com), May 11, 2004.